What is expectancy in practice?
What one average trade of a given kind is worth to you across many repetitions.
What one average trade of a given kind is worth to you across many repetitions.
Expectancy in practice, explained
Multiply your win rate by your average win, then subtract your loss rate times your average loss. A positive result means the setup pays you to keep taking it; a negative one means it is charging you, however good the last one felt.
A worked example
40% of closes win at +$600, 60% lose at −$200. (0.40 × $600) − (0.60 × $200) = +$120 per trade.
Where expectancy in practice shows up in a journal
A trading journal is where this stops being a definition and becomes your own number. sizeforzero computes it from the trades you import or log, alongside the rest of your analytics vocabulary, and every figure in the app carries an (i) that explains it in the same plain English you just read.